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Triple Crown 2005 : The Countdown BeginsTriple Crown Series – 2005 EditionInstallment 1: "The Countdown Begins" The Players Let's get down to business. The 131st Kentucky Derby is fast approaching in the rear view mirror. There's no time to lose. The countdown has started. Let's start our analysis before we buy our copy of the May 6 Daily Racing Form. Who are the players? That's obvious. Here is a snapshot of the main players: Name Dosage Index AFLEET ALEX 2.11 BANDINI 2.78 BELLAMY ROAD 2.25 BUZZARD'S BAY 1.50 GREELEY'S GALAXY 4.00 HIGH FLY 2.00 HIGH LIMIT 2.50 NOBLE CAUSEWAY 2.08 ROCKPORT HARBOR 1.67 SUN KING 3.00 Guess what. This is a very, very talented list of contenders. The dosage index is presented because the 131st edition of the Derby is going to be classic in every sense, and the dosage index is a great aid to deciphering a true classic race. Remember, the lower the dosage index (D.I.) the better. BELLAMY ROAD threw in a Godzilla performance in the Wood Memorial. NOBLE CAUSEWAY is in fine form. HIGH FLY is a serious runner, and SUN KING, although well-beaten in the Toyota Blue Grass, is no slouch. But, wait a minute, these colts are all trained by the same guru, that fellow Nick Zito. Either the racing gods are smiling on Nick, or he has brewed up some magic elixir that has transformed his stable into the second coming of the "The Incredibles." Either way, chances are a Zito charge will win the Derby. Except for SUN KING, the dosage indexes support the Beyers these colts have been earning, so look out if you're the competition. BELLAMY ROAD was timed in 1:47.16 in the Wood! That's no accident. That's Godzilla. What about the, er, other trainers, and other colts? BANDINI is the latest champion, and Pletcher has him ready (1:50.16 at 1 1/8 in the Blue Grass). He defeated fine competition including Bobby Frankel's HIGH LIMIT, Zito's SUN KING, Lukas's CONSOLIDATED, and McGlaughlin's CLOSING ARGUMENT. BANDINI's D.I. of 2.78 is okey dokey, as well. HIGH LIMIT (D.I. 2.50) will be heard from in the Derby. And don't forget Zito's "second string." NOBLE CAUSEWAY and HIGH FLY in particular are capable of throwing a huge number, either or both of them. AFLEET ALEX (D.I. 2.11) took the Arkansas Derby in 1:48.80, an impressive performance, but not against top competition. Similarly, GREELEY'S GALAXY (D.I. 4.00) took the Illinois Derby, but don't expect a repeat performance in the Derby. BUZZARD'S BAY (D.I. 1.50) is shaping up like a nice exotics play, with California's Mullins with something to prove. The Lambert Philosophy For those of you new to the site, my name is Jim Lambert, and I'm probably the most mathematically educated prognosticator you will find on the internet. My philosophy is simple: Understand the nature of the race, don't just pick a winner. The Kentucky Derby is always a high class Grade I race, which tends to support the repeatability of prior performances. This is good news for Beyer speed figure fans. However, the Derby is typically run with a field size at or near twenty, which creates conditions which fly in the face of repeatability. These two competing, and conflicting, factors make the Derby a unique and somewhat puzzling race to analyze. This year is no different. But there is a caveat. This is the Nick Zito factor. What he is doing with his stable this year is going to cause big problems for anybody handicapping or betting the Kentucky Derby. When a man seems to be bigger than the game he is in, anything can happen. And it is not easy to handicap. It is probable, though, that his mainstay, BELLAMY ROAD, will be the deserving favorite, and only a superior performance will beat him. Until next time, this is Jim Lambert, signing off … Horse-Race-Handicapping.com Copyright 2005 About the author: James Lambert Founder of Horse-Race-Handicapping.com www.horse-race-handicapping.com Circulated by Article Emporium
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